Concept uses its proprietary New Zealand electricity market model, ‘ORC’, to forecast electricity prices from 2025 to 2047.  This modelling produces

• Annual average prices
• Quarterly prices
• Daily intraday prices (we model 8,760 fully chronological hourly steps, rather than using within-day or within-week load blocks)
• Price duration data
• Capture rates (generation weighted - time weighted average price ratios) for different technologies (wind, solar, geothermal, etc.).

Our modelling incorporates:

• 43 possible 'weather years' using fully coincident combinations of historical hydro inflows, wind, sunshine, and demand levels
• Interisland HVDC flow limits and reserves constraints
• 'Slow start' thermal plant operating constraints
• Dynamically created water value curves for each future system state
• Estimations of real-world inaccuracies in peak demand and renewable generation output forecasting
• Simulated plant outages
• Grid batteries and EV charging patterns
• A detailed gas supply model, capturing the effects of gas storage and flexibility from major users and gas fields
• Concept’s proprietary view of the generation development pipeline and electricity demand outlook.

Our price forecasts are revised quarterly. Subscription customers receive a written report each quarter with access to an online dashboard which allows downloads of forecast data (see demonstration video to the right). Customers can request additional modelling output data, sensitivity analyses and new scenarios. Alternatively, non-subscription customers can make one-off purchases of our latest report and (time-limited) dashboard access.
Purchasers of the report are also entitled to a 1-hour session with the report’s authors to discuss the projections.

For more information, contact: Dave Weaver or Simon Coates.