The ENZ model is a comprehensive tool designed to project and analyse the economic and greenhouse gas emissions outcomes for various sectors of the New Zealand economy. Built by Concept to examine the dynamics driving emissions and economic activities, ENZ models the interplay between emissions-producing decisions—such as land-use changes, technology adoption, and energy demand—and external drivers like commodity prices and policy settings. The ENZ model has been used to inform New Zealand’s second Emissions Reduction Plan (ERP2) and advice by the Climate Change Commission.

Model Framework

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ENZ modules, sub-sectors and inter-dependencies
​ENZ is best describe as a hybrid, dynamic recursive model with bottom-up economic and emissions projections. ENZ projects sectoral outcomes by incorporating price signals, policy settings, and economic feedback loops. The model includes endogenous decision-making in some areas (e.g., fuel switching, land-use decisions) but does so at a aggregate rather than an individual agent level. However, it does selective apply unit-level modelling for key industrial emitters that are large enough significantly affect emissions. It is best classified as a national-level policy model that incorporates elements of energy-economy modelling and sectoral emissions forecasting.

ENZ integrates historical data, sub-sector projections, and various assumptions with dynamic modelling processes to project emissions and other key metrics. Historical data sources are used to establish its baseline conditions. These sources include New Zealand’s Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Inventory, energy and fuel statistics from the Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment (MBIE), and sector-specific data from government agencies. Historical activity levels such as electricity generation, energy demand, transport usage, waste emissions, and agricultural production also inform the calculation of emissions intensities and efficiencies. ​

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