In late Winter 2024 Concept produced its inaugural gas market report. We plan to produce these annually, shortly after MBIE’s release of the information disclosures from the upstream operators of the gas fields.
The 2024 report covered:
In addition to this standard market forecast, Concept has provided a variety of other bespoke forecasts on gas market issues for clients including:
For more information, contact Simon Coates or Dave Weaver.
The 2024 report covered:
- How have we got here? Analysis on the drivers behind the Winter 2024 situation, including:
- upstream parties’ investment in drilling campaigns and the associated success/failure
- how much the current gas delivery and medium-term outlook is different to the projections made by upstream parties at the start of 2022.
- What is the outlook for gas supply from current fields in the short-medium-and long-term? Field-by-field analysis of potential future drilling campaigns from the 'big-6' fields, including:
- expected deliverability from these campaigns
- level of investment required for the drilling
- likely outcomes if there were no further drilling.
- What is the supply/demand balance in the short-to-medium term? Monthly projections of:
- potential gas field deliverability
- gas demand from various sectors. This sectoral analysis looks at issues associated with thermal generation (dry/wet issues, plus Huntly coal), as well as the effect of Methanex demand.
- What is the potential for additional sources of gas supply?
- New gas fields - how likely are they, what they could potentially bring, and when.
- LNG - likely cost, emissions implications, and comparisons with alternatives.
- What about Methanex?
- Economics of using gas to make methanol versus using it for power generation or industrial process heat.
- Implications of Methanex permanently shutting its remaining Motunui train for the long-term gas market outlook.
- What might the long-term future hold? Modelling of gas supply/demand and price outcomes out to 2050, including:
- different combinations of scenarios of gas supply availability (from existing fields, plus scenarios of potential new fields), carbon prices faced by New Zealand participants, and LNG prices
- gas prices based on the fundamental economics of gas supply and the cost of using gas versus alternatives for the various consumer segments
- dynamically modelled petrochemical exit decisions, fuel choice decisions for the different consumer segments, the extent to which new renewables displace thermal generation, the coal/gas fuel choice for Huntly and the extent to which Huntly on coal may displace gas-fired power stations.
In addition to this standard market forecast, Concept has provided a variety of other bespoke forecasts on gas market issues for clients including:
- the economics of existing and potential new gas storage facilities
- forecasts of gas pipeline economics and the effect of declining gas. volumes on consumer prices
- LPG market forecasts.
For more information, contact Simon Coates or Dave Weaver.