Publications

September 2025: Powerful potential – New Zealand’s vehicle-to-grid opportunity
With EV uptake gathering pace in New Zealand and around the world, the ability to supply power from EV batteries back into the grid at times of peak demand – so-called ‘vehicle-to-grid’ or ‘V2G’ – is emerging as a significant potential energy resource.
This report, sponsored by electricity and transport sector participants and undertaken in conjunction with specialist EV consultancy Retyna, analyses the potential benefits of V2G and the success factors needed to realise these benefits.
Detailed analysis using Concept’s proprietary models identifies that the potential value of V2G is large.
The report then analyses different elements of getting V2G ‘right’ to unlock this value – the consumer offering, technical requirements, and commercial arrangements. It offers recommendations, particularly highlighting the need for:

consistency in arrangements across different electricity distribution businesses and (for chargers) Trans-Tasman
development of ‘type-of-use’ tariff arrangements to reward V2G – similar to (but more sophisticated than) controlled hot water tariffs

May 2025: Key issues facing the New Zealand energy sector
This report analyses the circumstances that led to winter 2024's unprecedent gas and electricity prices, as well as looking forward to what the future may hold. The note covers four areas:

electricity system balance – examining how we got to our current situation of scarcity, and future outlook.

gas market – outlining the gas information problems that exacerbated electricity scarcity, and future gas sector challenges.

electricity prices – examining how and why price outcomes have differed between consumer segments.

energy scarcity-driven de-industrialisation – examining how and why some sectors have been impacted and consider the future outlook.

One of the key insights is that gas production consistently being below projections, coupled with the (only relatively recently resolved) uncertainty over Tiwai’s future, are dominant factors that have led to the current situation of electricity scarcity.
The analysis, undertaken by Simon Coates, was commissioned by Tony Baldwin to feed into his ‘Independent Expert Panel’ Review of issues in the electricity sector - noting that, due to potential perceptions of conflict of interest, Simon was not part of this Panel.

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March 2025: What is needed for an effective and efficient public light-EV charging network?
We were commissioned by NZTA Waka Kotahi in 2024 to undertake this research project to provide information that could aid in the establishment of a comprehensive public EV charging network in New Zealand. This report provides a collation of work that could assist to support effective and efficient charging services for light EVs in New Zealand.
A key part of our approach has been to examine the context for EV charging services and their supporting infrastructure as this provides a foundation for understanding who might need what information and for what purpose. We prioritised information gaps from the standpoint of government and consumer interest in a well-functioning market for EV charging services.

February 2025: Firming New Zealand's renewable energy
This analysis by Concept Consulting for Genesis Energy and KPMG explores the critical role of energy storage in securing New Zealand’s renewable electricity future. As the country phases out baseload thermal generation, the need for flexible, long-duration energy storage becomes increasingly urgent to balance seasonal and year-to-year variations in renewable output.
Using Concept’s proprietary electricity market model, we assessed the scale of flexibility required, the trade-offs between cost, security, and emissions, and the role of various storage solutions—including biomass, gas, pumped hydro, and batteries. The work shows the value of retaining the Huntly Rankine units to maintain energy security.
The findings underscore the importance of a diversified storage strategy to manage dry-year risk and seasonal demand while ensuring affordability and reliability. Read the full report to understand how New Zealand can successfully navigate its transition to a fully renewable electricity system.

October 2024: Past and future generation pipeline
We completed a report for the Electricity Retailers' Association of New Zealand looking back at electricity generation build over the past 25 years as well as how much generation is being developed for our future needs. We found that:

There has been ~1,400 MW of net new generation capacity built since 1999, despite major fossil fuel plant retirements. Starting from a baseline of ~9,000 MW, this is a ~16% net increase in capacity.
Total renewable generation capacity has increased by ~2,250 MW since 1999.
There is currently ~1,250 MW of new generation projects that have reached final investment decision and are committed. Many multiples of this amount are in earlier stages of project development.

The report also describes some of the factors that influence generation investment (e.g., the regulatory environment, demand growth, electricity prices, gas prices, carbon prices, the transmission grid as well as macro factors like recessions and Covid-19) and how these have evolved over time in New Zealand.

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September 2024: Economic regulation What does it mean in practice?
This paper, presented at the Water New Zealand conference, helps bring to life what economic regulation will mean for water users, water entities and for New Zealand, and why it is likely to lead to better outcomes for all three.
It focuses on the practicalities of economic regulation, including by:

explaining what the regulation is, what it is trying to achieve, and how it is developed, implemented and operated.
exploring the practical challenges of design and implementation, and ensuring planned transitional arrangements dovetail neatly into longer term regulatory models.
looking at the implications of this regulation for engineering and asset management, financial planning and executive teams as well as company directors.
describing compliance burdens and practical headaches from a practitioner's perspective.
reflecting on the benefits of economic regulation, with real examples.
suggesting how the water sector might learn and benefit from the experience of regulating energy and fibre networks and airports.

December 2023: Clean car policies
We prepared a report for Drive Electric modelling the likely costs and benefits of removing New Zealand's clean car policies - the clean car discount and the clean car standard.
We found that removing the policies will significantly reduce electric vehicle (EV) uptake for around a decade. This will reduce vehicle purchase and electricity generation costs, but these savings are more than outweighed by higher petrol and diesel import costs out to 2050.
We estimate a net cost to New Zealand from removing the polices of $2.7bn (in present value terms) or $3.5bn if emission costs are included (and valued in line with Treasury recommendations).

June 2023: Energy hardship analysis
In support of the Energy Hardship Expert Panel, MBIE engaged us to:

undertake original quantitative analysis to cast light on the nature and scale of drivers of energy hardship
pull together information and insights on this issue from past studies by other organisations.

Our analysis demonstrated that, although energy hardship is generally associated with broader income inadequacy issues that also affect other essential goods (such as food and housing), there are special characteristics of energy that make it particularly problematic.
We highlighted a range of possible measures that could help address energy hardship.

October 2022: Which way is forward?
We developed this report to support a Boston Consulting Group study, “The future is electric”. It analyses several key ‘pathway’ choices for New Zealand’s energy transition, with insights including:

New Zealand is on-track to achieve almost 99% renewable generation by 2030 purely from generators responding to the strong carbon price signal from the emission trading scheme
in a highly renewable electricity system, managing dry-year risk will reduce in importance, but managing North-Island peaking risk will grow to become a key driver of the need to procure flexibility resources
getting rid of the last ~1.5% of fossil generation by 2030 is technically feasible but costly. The higher electricity prices that will result from going to 100% renewables will reduce the rate of electrification in the rest of the economy, thereby increasing costs and emissions
implementing 100% renewables via single 'mega-scale' projects (eg, a massive pumped-hydro scheme) is likely to be particularly high cost and faces the greatest uncertainties and risks. Additionally, mega-scale projects in the South Island are not well-suited to meeting the growing North Island peak flexibility requirement
transitioning pipeline fossil gas to green hydrogen does not look cost-effective against a wide range of possible futures
implementing arrangements to get smart management of EVs and hot water will be critical to minimise the extent of network investment needed to support electrification-driven demand growth.

June 2022: Zero-emission truck policies
We prepared a report for the Ministry of Transport on policy options for supporting efficient uptake of zero-emission vehicle (ZEV) trucks.
We find that ZEV trucks (and battery electric or BEV trucks in particular) will become lower cost than diesel within five to ten years. This is on a public (whole-of-New Zealand) and total cost of ownership basis and is due to rapid technology gains and expanding variety of ZEV models.
However, due to several barriers, the private cost (to truck owners) of ZEV trucks is higher than the public cost – significantly frustrating efficient uptake.
We have analysed how government could support efficient uptake and recommend a suite of policy options to overcome the barriers facing ZEV trucks – ZEV sales mandates for truck suppliers, financial incentives for truck purchasers, joint (public and private) investment in truck-scale recharging/fuelling stations, changes to electricity network upgrade cost allocation for depot chargers, and changes to RUC and VDAM rules.

March 2022: Gas supply and demand projections
Using updated information from natural gas producers and updated modelling of demand and power generation, we refreshed our projections of the near-term and longer-term gas supply and demand balance.
Our analysis indicates that the significant scarcity experienced in winter 2021 will be reduced (but not eliminated) by winter 2022, and fully alleviated by winter 2023.
Longer-term, we project sufficient supply to support running the mothballed Waitara Valley methanol plant from around 2023 until the latter half of the 2030s, plus even longer-term supply for high value uses (residential through to power generation).
The Gas Industry Company commissioned this report, which is also available on their site (Gas Supply and Demand - Gas Industry).

December 2021: EV charging infrastructure
This is the third of three reports on policies for successful electric vehicle uptake. It focusses on away-from-base charging for New Zealand's growing fleet of EVs.
We find a significant benefit from continuing public funding and recommend a reshaping of public funding programmes to support both rapid densification, and targeted public-good investment. Our modelling shows the costs of early charger investment are an order of magnitude lowers than the cost of later investment.
We also highlight three areas for priority funding - facilities for metro service vehicles, megawatt-scale chargers for heavy trucks, and facilities for communities with limited at-home charging.

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November 2021: Flexible hydrogen production
As New Zealand decarbonises its electricity system, dry year risk will remain a key problem to solve - even as balancing wind and solar variability becomes an increasingly important additional flexibility challenge.
We have assessed the benefit that a flexibly operated green hydrogen export facility (built to replace the smelter) could provide toward meeting future flexibility challenges.
Our report compares flexible hydrogen production with flexible smelter operation, fossil and biofuel peakers, retaining coal reserve at Huntly, overbuilding renewables or building large-scale South Island pumped hydro.

October 2021: Electricity supply arrangements for EVs
This is the second in a series of three reports on policies for successful electric vehicle uptake. It focuses on at-base charging for New Zealand's growing fleet of EVs.
We have modelled the impact of poorly coordinated charging on electricity supply, and the potential for 'smart' charging to remove capacity pressures and provide new flexibility resources. We recommend tariff and market arrangements that would support the best outcomes for consumers.

January 2021: Electric Vehicle Uptake Policies
This report is the first in a three-volume study that is being funded by 15 organisations from across the electricity and motor industries.
It draws on overseas experience, combined with NZ-specific modelling, to assess the various policy options for incentivising EV uptake in New Zealand.
It makes recommendations on the design parameters of a series of 'core' policies including Emissions Standards, Feebates, and ICE bans, as well as assessing a range of other possible policies.
It also addresses the specific dynamic of New Zealand's heavy reliance on second-hand vehicles from Japan, and the potential for regressive outcomes if this is not properly recognised in policy design.

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February 2020: Capacity markets and energy-only markets - a survey of recent developments
This report compares the performance of energy-only markets and capacity markets - drawing on recent international experience and literature. It describes how these different approaches in electricity markets across the world have performed in relation to reliability, cost, and competition.
Finally, it outlines issues that are specific to the New Zealand electricity market, and outlines the relevant lessons from overseas that should be considered before any design changes are contemplated.

September 2019: Long-term gas supply / demand scenarios - 2019 update
This fourth report in the series produced for Gas Industry Company presents our projections of the future for New Zealand's gas sector out to 2050. These projections were produced using our proprietary whole-of-economy model, ENZ. This model not only dynamically captures the linkages between the different energy-using parts of the economy, but is also the only such model to model the development and depletion of New Zealand's gas resources - a crucial dynamic as New Zealand's main gas-producing fields start to reach the end of their life.
The modelling demonstrates the significant different in effect that large changes in carbon prices can have on different gas-using segments, and highlights the extent to which uncertainty over the quantity of remaining gas in the ground will materially effect the future for New Zealand's gas sector.

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March 2019: Forecasting New Zealand's gas sector in 2050
In this presentation to the 2019 Downstream conference, Simon Coates analysed the key drivers of outcomes for the New Zealand gas sector, and the implications for the broader electricity and process heat sectors.
This analysis included the effect of the changed offshore exploration settings, higher CO2 prices, and the challenges of delivering flexibility for security of supply.

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January 2019: H2 in NZ - A study of the potential economics of hydrogen technologies in New Zealand
This three-volume study examines whether hydrogen technologies are likely to be cost-effective solutions for decarbonising New Zealand's economy. It examines both 'green' hydrogen produced from renewable electricity, and hydrogen produced from natural gas coupled with carbon capture and storage.
It finds that hydrogen could be economic for some niche applications, but for the majority of New Zealand's energy needs hydrogen is unlikely to become cost-competitive with alternative low carbon options, particularly direct use of electricity for electric trucks, process heat boilers and heat pumps. In large part this is due to the energy losses and additional capital costs associated with converting electricity into hydrogen, rather than using the renewable electricity directly.
The study also indicates that there may be opportunities for New Zealand to export hydrogen to "renewables-poor" countries such as Japan to decarbonise their economies. However, this is subject to significant uncertainty, and having an export industry is unlikely to materially improve the economics of hydrogen for decarbonising New Zealand's own economy.

March 2018: Driving change - A study on the issues and opportunities of mass-EV uptake in New Zealand
This report examines the issues and opportunities around mass uptake of electric vehicles in New Zealand.
It highlights that smarter, managed-charging electricity pricing options are required to deliver the ‘win-win’ of making it cheaper for consumers to charge their EVs (and thus facilitate their uptake), and help avoid significant network investment upgrades as the number of EVs in New Zealand grows and battery sizes increase.

November 2017: Options for assisting customers in energy hardship
This report for the Electricity Networks Association examined the drivers of energy hardship in New Zealand, and assessed options for addressing this hardship.
It found that, while low-income is a key driver, variations in household energy circumstance (e.g. level of insulation and location of house, access to alternative fuels, number and heating needs of occupants etc.) cause significant variations in the level of energy hardship faced by households on similar levels of income. This variation in energy circumstance has a significant bearing on which measures are likely to effectively deliver greatest assistance. It found that the Low Fixed Charge regulations are actively harming those households who face the greatest levels of energy hardship - i.e. who have the unfortunate combination of low-income, plus high energy needs. It assessed a range of interventions to address energy hardship, identifying those that could be most appropriate given the drivers of energy hardship in New Zealand.